VOL. II ARTICLE NO. 121

Intercepting the Pre-Attack Pathway

Why Codebook Quality Represents the Unsung Driver of Excellence in Targeted Violence-Related Research

Every day, the list of names and images grows longer. It used to be Columbine and Virginia Tech. Grainy video images of a high school student with an Uzi. Today it’s the University of Alabama. The Metro Station outside the Pentagon. An IRS building in Austin. Or the handwritten note found in the car of an aging factory worker who brought a gun to work on his 19th employment anniversary – and then used it to kill six of his colleagues and himself.

Rarely obvious to the reporters who cover these stories are the exciting advances at the frontlines of research into how such acts of targeted violence can be prevented within specific communities and environments – such as institutions of higher education (IHEs), large companies with thousands of employees, or entities such as taxing authorities or judicial departments whose mission or model places its stakeholders at elevated risks of being victimized by an aggrieved party or patron.

For those undertaking this research – university research departments, state and federal agencies, and law enforcement organizations with specialized protective missions – the challenge can be acute. That’s because, at its heart, targeted violence-related research focuses on some of the most difficult inputs to measure: human behavior and the potential for “dangerousness”.

Deciphering an Understandable and Discernable Process

As a result of seminal research on this issue undertaken by the U.S. Secret Service and the Department of Education over the last several years, we know that incidents of targeted violence share a critical characteristic in common: they’re usually the end-result of an “understandable and often discernable process of thinking and behavior”.¹

In short, they’re not random, sudden or impulsive acts. What’s the implication for prevention? A “discernable” process is one we can identify and interrupt – particularly if we continue to learn more about precisely when, where and how to intercept the “pre-attack behavioral pathway”.

Here’s the rub. To result in findings that are accurate and actionable, targeted violence-related research initiatives must be highly effective at systematically capturing observations from multiple events in a logical and rationale manner. There’s only one best practice way to do that: develop a codebook.

What Exactly Is a Codebook?

A documented and standardized protocol for recording observations about phenomena of interest.

• A “common playbook” that helps ensure that multiple researchers on a given project use a standard set of definitions for key terms and variables.
• A pre-established compilation of questions and potential answers carefully designed to address the sophisticated nuances inherent in extracting normalized data and actionable findings that can be used to predict behavior.
• One of the most crucial drivers of excellence in targeted violence-related research.

If Left Unmanaged, the Risks To the Project Can Mount

Defining and characterizing behavior can be open to interpretation and subjective opinion – a crucial outcome-determining challenge that can quickly escalate when multiple researchers and viewpoints are engaged.

Confusion can mount. Definitions of key terms can vary – or be interpreted differently. And both observers and researchers can easily and unconsciously pass inaccurate, inconsistent or inappropriate judgments on the behavior they are charged with cataloguing and analyzing.

When these errors and inconsistencies are allowed to occur at the beginning of the project they can, at minimum, skew key data, cause important data to be overlooked and generate false, misleading or incomplete findings. In some cases, they can undermine the entire project and tarnish the reputation of the study’s authors.

Why Codebook Quality Is So Critical

In short, a handful of crucial path-committing decisions early in the codebook creation process can either prejudice the project’s success right out of the gate or establish precisely the right platform to support and drive key study outcomes. These include:

1. The accuracy and completeness of the study’s findings;
2. The ease with which these findings can be made actionable in the field; and,
3. The durability of these findings in standing up to withering external scrutiny not just on the day of publication but 20 years from now when the value of the research should and will be measured by thought leaders in the field – as well as in lives saved.

For More Information

To find out more about targeted violence and other behavior research in your business, contact:

• Matthew W. Doherty, Senior Vice President, at (312) 869-8500 or via email
• Georgeann Rooney DiCaprio, Threat Assessment Specialist, at (312) 869-8500 or via email

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¹ Fein, R.A., & Vossekuil, B. (1998). Protective intelligence and threat assessment investigations: A guide for state and local law enforcement officials. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.